Overall hazard assessment for Grindavík remains unchanged
Information is updated regularly here and on X (Formerly known as Twitter).
Iceland Met Office
Updated 1 February 17:00 UTC
Models based on GPS data, reviewed this morning (1 Feb.) by scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the University of Iceland, indicate that approximately 6.5 million cubic meters of magma has accumulated beneath the Svartsengi region. According to this assessment, magma will soon reach the same volume as drained during the January 2024 eruption. Therefore, the timescale for the next eruption could be within two weeks or possibly days. This means that the likelihood of a magma intrusion, and a volcanic eruption, have increased.
There is no absolute certainty that the warning time ahead of the next intrusion or eruption will be the same as 14 Jan., which was about a five-hours notice from the beginning of the earthquake swarm until the eruption began just south of Hagafell. The warning period for the eruption between Stóra-Skógfell and Sundhnúkur on 18 Dec. last year was about 90 minutes, and that eruption occurred approximately at the mid-point of the (now solidified) magma intrusion beneath the Sundhnúksgígar crater row. With repeated lateral magma intrusions, it is likely that the pathway for magma propagation to the surface will be easier, resulting in less seismicity. However, rapid movements of magma are always accompanied by increased micro-seismicity. We assess that the minimum warning time would be one hour ahead of a volcanic eruption and that the most likely pathway would be along the fissures from the magma intrusion on 10 Nov. last year.
Seismic activity has been similar over the past week. Nearly 200 earthquakes have been measured in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and south of Hagafell in the past seven days. Most of these earthquakes were minor, under 1.0 in magnitude, at a depth of 2 to 5 km. The largest earthquake registered magnitude 1.8, and it was located about a kilometer south of Hagafell.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office has issued an updated hazard assessment map. The main changes are that zone 3 (Sýlingarfell – Hagafell) has been upgraded to red (high hazard), and zones 2 and 6 have been upgraded to amber (considerable hazard). Grindavík (zone 4) remains unchanged at a considerable level of hazard.
The overall assessment for each zone is based on a combined evaluation of seven types of hazards that could occur within individual zones. The list on the map shows hazards within the zones that are rated as "considerable," "high," or "very high." Hazards rated as "high" or "very high" are highlighted in bold. This hazard map is valid until 8 Feb. 2024.
It should be noted that although the overall hazard assessment for Grindavík remains the same as last week, the lava-flow hazard is now assessed as high. The hazard of sinkholes opening over fissures within Grindavík is still rated as very high.