Lava from the eruption 8 February 2024. Photo: Birgir Vilhelm Óskarsson/The Icelandic Institute of Natural History.
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Iceland Met Office
Updated 12. March at 17:00 UTC
Likely sequence of events over the next several days:
- The volume of magma beneath Svartsengi continues to increase which could result in a new dike intrusion and possibly an eruption.
- An eruption could occur with very short notice, possibly less than 30 minutes.
- The most likely eruption site is between Stóra-Skógafell and Hagafell.
Model calculations show that magma accumulation at Svartsengi continues at a steady rate. In previous events, a magma intrusion has formed when the volume of accumulated magma has reached 8 to 13 million cubic meters. The total volume accumulated now has already reached this threshold. Pressure buildup therefore continues to increase in the magma chamber and the likelihood of a new dike intrusion and even an eruption in the next days is increased.
140 earthquakes have been detected in the vicinity of the Sundhnúkur crater row and Grindavík since Friday. The majority of these earthquakes have been minor or below magnitude 1.0 whilst the largest measured event was a M2.8 on Friday evening, at around 5km depth just SE of Þorbjörn. Seismic activity in the area has increased slightly in the past few days compared to last week, which can possibly be linked to calmer winds and optimal weather conditions for earthquake detections.
The IMO has updated the hazard assessment map. The hazard level remains unchanged from the last map. The new hazard assessment map took effect at 15:00 today, Tuesday, March 12 and is valid until March 19, barring any changes to the situation.
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(Click on the image to see it larger)
Unusually rhythmic pattern of unrest, up to this point
As reported last week, the behavior of the dike propagation on March 2 differed in some ways from the previous dike formations. Scientists will continue to gather data and infer if the event on March 2 indicates possible changes to the unusually rhythmic pattern of unrest with magma accumulation at Svartsengi and repeated dyke intrusions and eruptions.
These events of unrest have previously been compared to the unrest in Krafla that started in 1975. During a period of 10 years, 20 magma intrusions occurred with 9 of them culminating in a volcanic eruption (See image below). In the Krafla unrest magma always intruded into the same dike, but at different scales of magnitude. However, the eruptions did not follow a similarly regular pattern as observed so far in the Sundhnúkar crater row and has in fact been unusually rhythmic.
The image shows the interaction between magma intrusions and ground uplift in the center of the Krafla caldera. The graph below shows the elevation of the measurement point within the Krafla caldera and the graph above shows the distance from the caldera to the dike formations.
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