Indication that magma pressure is building, increasing the likelihood of new dike intrusion and possibly an eruption
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Iceland Met Office
Updated 2 Jan. at 14:00 UTC (9 a.m. EST)
The rate of ground displacement at Svartsengi is decreasing. Experts gathered at the Meteorological Office this morning confirmed this through an analysis of GPS data.
The deceleration of inflation is an indication that magma pressure is rising, increasing the chances of new dike intrusion and also volcanic eruption. This is a similar change in ground displacement that was observed at the end of the day on Dec. 15, which culminated in an eruption three days later. However, it is difficult to assert whether this pattern will repeat.
The first signs of an impending volcanic eruption are a sudden increase in seismic activity, and such signs were observed shortly before the eruption began on Dec. 18.
In recent days, seismic activity in the area has been relatively consistant, with around 200 earthquakes recorded per day. Most of the earthquakes measure below magnitude 1.0, but around 30 earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding 1.0 have been recorded since December 29, with the largest being a magnitude 2.1 located in the northern part of Grindavík.
Continued scientific assessment indicates that, should an eruption occur, the Sundhnúkur crater row, between Stóra-Skógafell and Hagafell, is the most probable location for an eruption. However, it is important to note that magma migration does not always result in an eruption, as demonstrated by the activity at Fagradalsfjall and in the Krafla Fires.
Seismic activity continues to be measured west of Fagradalsfjall, where around 100 small earthquakes have been recorded since Dec. 29. Further analysis of the monitoring data will soon be conducted to obtain a clearer picture of the situation at Fagradalsfjall.
The hazard assessment map issued by the Meteorological Office on Dec.29 remains unchanged and is valid until Jan. 5.
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